MLS Fantasy 2020: Week 7 Fantasy Forecast
Ahead of each Week in MLS Fantasy the Hype Train provides its informative Fantasy Forecast, where members of the Hype Team will duel for MLS supremacy in predicting scores, as well as going head to head in picking a Scout Picks squad for the relevant round of games. In addition, we give our insight into who are the players to watch and those to drop, as well as providing insight into captaincy picks, differential players for the week, and more. Welcome to the Forecast. All aboard.
How does our Forecasting work?
The Hype Team will compete in a weekly head to head dual of wits. The 3 members of the team will provide weekly insight for the Gameweek ahead, providing score predictions, a Scout Picks squad that follows MLS Fantasy rules, and will provide what insight they can for the fixtures at hand.
MLS Fixture Prediction: As pundits, we are testing our football acumen with MLS predictions and will be providing regular updated tables and stats in each edition of the MLS Forecast. A perfect score is worth 3 points whilst a correct result is worth 1 point. An incorrect score is worth nothing.
Gameweek Insight: We've left an open space for the team to write that helps with the Gameweek hustle; identifying captaincy picks, transfers, attacking options, clean sheet potential, teams to look our for and avoid, differential players, as well as general analysis and comments.
Scout Picks: Picking a squad of 15 for a single Week, within their budget limitations, using the rules of MLS Fantasy - formations, the player limits of 3 players-per-club, and each team must pick a captain.
MLS Fantasy 2020: Week 7 Fixtures (16)
Thu 17th September 2020:
FC Dallas 2-0 Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Portland Timbers
Vancouver Whitecaps 0-2 Montreal Impact
Sat 19th September 2020:
Seattle Sounders 3-1 LAFC
Sporting KC 0-0 FC Dallas
New England Revolution 2-0 NYCFC
Sun 20th September 2020:
Atlanta United 2-1 Inter Miami
NY Red Bulls 3-0 FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew 4-0 Nashville
D.C. United 1-1 Toronto
Orlando City 1-1 Chicago Fire
Houston Dynamo 4-2 Minnesota United
Real Salt Lake 2-0 Vancouver Whitecaps
LA Galaxy 2-1 Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes 0-1 Portland Timbers
Mon 21st September 2020:
Montreal Impact 2-1 Philadelphia Union
MLS Fantasy 2020: Week 7 Insight
6 Teams have a Double Gameweek:
Dallas: Colorado (H), Sporting KC (A)
Colorado: Dallas (A), LA Galaxy (A)
San Jose: Portland (H), Portland (H)
Portland: San Jose (A), San Jose (A)
Vancouver: Montreal (H), Real Salt Lake (A)
Montreal: Vancouver (A), Philadelphia (H)
Season Points & Price Increase Review:
Week 4: +$3.0mil – Points: 46 – Returns: 3
Week 5: +$3.7mil – Points: 95 – Returns: 8
Week 6: -$2.0mil – Points: 60 – Returns: 6
Here we go, and to illustrate my analysis of price changes here are the breakdown of my team. My two bench $4.0mil options can’t lose value, but here is everyone else.
When you look at the breakdown here are the following trends:
- Seven players got price decreases, and they were all players that played.
- Three players didn’t play, and their price remained the same as stated in the rules.
- Three players got a price increase after getting a return, and the price increase was £1.0mil for all players. Taider (MTL) got an amazing 18pts and got the same price rise as Figueroa (HOU) who got 6pts.
- Three players got returns and suffered a price decrease.
This week the players that didn’t get a return lost the following value:
Quintero ($0.6mil), Segura (LAFC) $0.9mil, Brooks Lennon (ATL) lost $0.7mil, Guzan (ATL) lost $0.8mil.
The players that got returns that got a price decrease:
Barco (ATL) lost $0.8mil, as did Gregus (MIN) lose $0.8mil for getting seven points. Rossi (LAFC) lost $0.7mil after picking up 7pts.
Players with returns who got a price rise:
Taider ($1.0mil) got 18pts, Figueroa ($1.0mil) got 6pts, Robles ($1.0mil) got 9pts
Players who didn’t play:
Ondrasek (DAL) didn’t even go down in price after not playing and leaving the league to return to the Czech Republic. Elis (HOU) didn’t play, no price decrease. Cannon (DAL) didn’t play and he didn’t get a price decrease. In all three of these instances, players who do not play do not have their price decreased or increased as they need to have concrete minutes to be in the firing line of their value coming into question.
So, I am here again wondering how the MLS price changes work. For one, and I am sincere when I say this, I am glad to see players who got poor returns go down by more than $0.1mil to $0.2mil which has been the common trend. Player price rises were aggressive, and that still showed with the aggressive pricing of three players in my team. Taider I get, he got a mammoth return this week and was my best player, but I was surprised to see Figueroa go up $1.0mil as well as he only got 6pts. I get that they are doing an average to decide prices, but surely there is a middle ground for players who get a return on the low end of the spectrum. 6pts isn’t exactly a skyscraper return in the MLS, that’s all I am saying.
I am also confused why players who got returns also got price decreases, Gregus (MIN) is a great example. The midfielder ended the week on 7pts which was his second-best return of the season and got a big decrease. He was also involved in the Double-Gameweek and got* 3pts against Sporting Kansas, so I wonder if this also factors into the price decrease. Technically it shouldn’t, as only one points haul is applicable in the new system, so the lesser score by logic shouldn’t be considered.
My last area of confusion is arguably the one that got me a bit concerned from a fantasy point of view. In any other fantasy game, a player that doesn’t play tends to get transferred out and lose their value. The three players in my team that didn’t play also were exempt from a decrease. This doesn’t make sense as players that played in my team that got returns like Gregus got a price decrease, and it isn’t a fair system when a player’s value is retained for not showing up, literally. I expected players who didn’t feature to get a reasonable reduction as it should reflect on their average points over the course of the season. In my eyes a DNP is the same as 0pts.
The MLS pricing system doesn’t make sense. This week I should have had a bigger price decrease than what I got.
*didn’t get three points for the second fixture.
Captaincy Picks:
Essential: Jara (DAL)
Alternative: Taider (MTL)
Differential: Quioto (MTL)
MLS Scout Picks Squad: Week 7
Budget: $125.0 million (fixed)
Formation: 3-4-3
Starting 11
GK: Room (CLB)
DEF: Brault-Guillard (MTL)
DEF: Hedges (DAL)
DEF: Mensah (CLB)
MID: Taider (MTL)
MID: Valeri (POR)
MID: Ricaurte (DAL)
MID: Espinoza (SJ)
FOR: Jara (DAL)
FOR: Quioto (MTL)
FOR: Mora (POR)
Substitutes
GK: Jensen (RBNY)
MID: Cuello (LA)
DEF: Long (RBNY)
DEF: Washington (NSH)
MLS Fantasy 2020: Week 7 Fixtures (16)
Thu 17th September 2020:
FC Dallas 2-0 Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 Portland Timbers
Vancouver Whitecaps 1-3 Montreal Impact
Sat 19th September 2020:
Seattle Sounders 3-1 LAFC
Sporting KC 1-1 FC Dallas
New England Revolution 0-1 NYCFC
Sun 20th September 2020:
Atlanta United 2-2 Inter Miami
NY Red Bulls 3-0 FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew 2-0 Nashville
D.C. United 1-2 Toronto
Orlando City 2-1 Chicago Fire
Houston Dynamo 3-2 Minnesota United
Real Salt Lake 4-1 Vancouver Whitecaps
LA Galaxy 1-1 Colorado Rapids
San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 Portland Timbers
Mon 21st September 2020:
Montreal Impact 1-0 Philadelphia Union
MLS Fantasy 2020: Week 7 Insight
6 Teams have a Double Gameweek:
Dallas: Colorado (H), Sporting KC (A)
Colorado: Dallas (A), LA Galaxy (A)
San Jose: Portland (H), Portland (H)
Portland: San Jose (A), San Jose (A)
Vancouver: Montreal (H), Real Salt Lake (A)
Montreal: Vancouver (A), Philadelphia (H)
Week 6 Review:
With the stipulation that MLS Fantasy only awards players for a single game, I’m not sure if 82 points is a good haul or not. My points were ranked as the 1199th best for active players and I feel like areas of my squad underperformed.
Ondrasek leaving Dallas forced my poultry bench to make up for the big Czech’s departure, whilst Darwin Quintero (4 points) couldn’t keep his momentum going. Atlanta are proving to be even more complicated to judge as the season goes on, whilst Columbus conceding twice at Chicago wasn’t ideal for most.
On the whole, Week 6 was largely unpredictable and I’m glad it is in the rear-view mirror. A slight rise in my Overall Rank is appreciated given how some big scores always exist out in the wilderness of MLS Fantasy.
Teams to Watch / Avoid:
Columbus Crew & NY Red Bulls (Watch): The best teams in a single fixture, without doubt, are The Crew and the Red Bulls. Columbus host Nashville whilst RBNY host Cincinatti – if MLS Fantasy was scripted, then these two fixtures are where the points may lay this week.
Seattle Sounders (Watch): I keep over-looking them due to the Double Gameweek action, so don’t be surprised if Ruidiaz and Morris are on fire again this week against an LAFC side who are his and miss since the league’s restart.
Montreal Impact (Watch): The most obvious pick for fill your squads up this week is Montreal. The Canadian clubs are allowed to play teams from the United States again so this will be a really interesting, and potentially open, week for Montreal. With a lack of concrete options elsewhere, the Impact are the default picks this week, with my personal go-to being Taider, Quioto and Diop.
Atlanta (Avoid): Just a general statement, but I’ll be avoiding The Five Stripes until there is sizeable change at the club. Their results are bi-polar at best, Pity Martinez has left for Saudi Arabia and they’re a headache to back on in MLS Fantasy.
Portland Timbers (Avoid?): I’ve gone for Valeri in my team this week as form comes out of nowhere, especially for set-piece takers, though the Timbers have only won twice since leaving Disney and they have the same fixture twice this week away at San Jose – given how the wildfires are destroying the west coast, it’s just a turbulent time right now and a smaller point to consider too!
Captaincy Picks:
Essential: Romell Quioto (Montreal)
Alternative: Diego Valeri (Portland)
Differential: Pedro Santos (Columbus)
Quioto was all action against Vancouver last week and I’m expecting a repeat performance. On set-pieces and with another Double Gameweek, the Montreal man has a better, and more obvious appeal than the likes of Diego Valeri – with Portland’s form non-existent since winning the MLS is Back is Tournament.
MLS Scout Picks Squad: Week 7
Budget: $125.0 million (fixed)
Formation: 3-4-3
Starting 11
GK: C. Diop (MTL)
DEF: K. Duncan (RBNY)
DEF: J. Mensah (CLB)
DEF: R. Ziegler (DAL)
MID: S. Taider (MTL)
MID: D. Valeri (POR)
MID: P. Santos (CLB)
MID: A. Ricaurte (DAL)
FOR: G. Zardes (CLB)
FOR: R. Quioto (MTL)
FOR: F. Jara (DAL)
Substitutes
GK: A. Putna (RSL)
MID: C. Casseres Jnr (RBNY)
DEF: S. Salinas (SJ)
DEF: K. Egbo (RBNY)
Want to know more about The Hype Train?
The Hype Train is an entertainment website founded in 2015, specialising in Fantasy sports reporting, starting with Fantasy Premier League (FPL), before expanding to MLS Fantasy coverage in 2018.
We pride ourselves in providing beautiful graphics, statistics, in-depth analytical reporting and free weekly insight for hopeful players attempting to climb rankings tables. We are also occasional media reviewers, with a keen interest to review games, live sport, and professional wrestling.
In 2019, Hype Train Football Club was formed, becoming the first Fantasy Football website to take to the field. HTFC is a socially active team across social and web channels, providing regular match highlights, match reports, comprehensive player statistics and unique player profiles.
The Hype Train were nominated and shortlisted for the 'Best Football Blog' in 2016 by the Football Bloggers Association at their annual Football Blogging Awards (The FBA's), and were again shortlisted as a finalist in 2019 in the 'Best Fantasy Football Blog' category.
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All aboard.
