Home or Away? The Top 10 FPL Forwards
Deep in the midst on an international break, and just weeks from a potentially defining DGW34, the FPL has time to reflect and plan as the most important weeks of the season are thrust upon our teams. With GW32 approaching heavyweight forward options such as Jamie Vardy and Harry Kane are likely to be disposed of, at least for a short spell, to make way for players playing twice. Martial, Rashford, Lukaku, and Aguero, may eat up the ownership of the established heavy hitters. In the third part of our series of whether or not players are performing better from a fantasy standpoint at home or away, we turn to the top of the pitch with forward options. 6 of the top 10 point scoring forwards are set for double duty during DGW34, and we look at whether they're hitting form on the road, or if fan support is the basis for fantasy points.
Home or Away? FPL Midfielders
It's crunch time in the Fantasy Premier League. Fixtures for the elusive Double Gameweeks are slowly being added to the FPL website, and many patient managers who have endured the winter months are heavily considering playing chips and the second wildcard for a points boost when the right time arises. With many changes abound, we evaluate the top 10 midfielders heading GW31, and ask the simple question... Do they produce better fantasy returns at home or away? Tricky fixtures for the likes of favourites Mesut Ozil, Roberto Firmino, and Dimitri Payet to name a few, have had us call into question whether or not we need to worry about these popular selections heading into this week and the future.
To read our sister article on midfielders, click here, or on the image below with cover stars Gylfi Sigurdsson and Mesut Ozil.
Home or Away? FPL Goalkeepers
On the eve of a packed Gameweek 31, which itself is on the eve of a two week international break, the Fantasy Premier League begins to run out of normality. With just a matter of weeks before bumper Double Gameweek fixtures, we ask the simple question. Are Goalkeepers earning more FPL points at home or away? Just like with our recent midfielders article, we provide a rundown of the top 10 points earners between the sticks. Midfielders are more profitable on the road, will shot stoppers follow suit, or are they men of home comforts?
To read our second sister article on goalkeepers, click here, or on the image below with cover stars Hugo Lloris and David de Gea.
The simple question...
Requires the simple answer. For forwards we've looked just at overall points tallies from home and away fixtures running up until GW31, and after tapping away with a calculator have unearthered whether players are more effective from a fantasy standpoint in front of their own fans, or if they're more likely to score and assist at rival grounds.
Notes on Vardy
Vardy has started every single Premier League game this season, despite a few niggling injury worries, a broken wrist, and surgery in January.
The English forward has scored in 16/31 games this season, but hasn’t found the back of the net in his last 5 games.
25 bonus points is the second highest amount accumulated by a single player in the FPL. Any guesses who Vardy is behind? You don’t need any, it’s Mahrez with 37.
Vardy has contributed towards 27 goals this season: 19 goals, 8 assists.
Vardy has only blanked on 8 occasions this season (scoring 2 or less points): GWs 2, 18, 19, 20, 21, 25, 28, 29
Vardy’s best home days…
GW7 (Arsenal, home): 12pts
GW12 (Watford, home): 9pts
GW14 (Man United, home): 9pts
GW23 (Stoke, home): 7 pts
GW24 (Liverpool, home): 12pts
Vardy’s best away days…
GW4 (Bournemouth, away): 8pts
GW8 (Norwich, away): 9pts
GW9 (Southampton, away): 13pts
GW17 (Everton, away): 8pts
GW26 (Arsenal, away): 7pts
Notes on Kane
In 2 games against Bournemouth this season, Kane has amassed 33 FPL points. No player has scored more points against a single team this season. That being said, Aguero is set to face Newcastle in DGW34, having scored 25 from the first encounter, whilst Gini Wijnaldum has 25 against Norwich. The Toon travel to Norwich in the upcoming GW32.
Kane loves playing promoted teams. In addition to the 33 points picked up against the Cherries, the Hurrikane has scored 13 points against Norwich on 2 occasions, totalling 26 points. In addition, Kane has managed just the 9 points against Watford, having played the Hornets twice. That takes Kane’s tally against promoted teams this season to 66 points.
Kane was the first player to reach 20 goals this season in a 3-0 home victory for Spurs over Bournemouth
Kane has managed double figure points on 7 occasions this season. All but one of these big GWs has been against teams in the bottom 6. The exception being the 13 points picked up against West Ham during GW13.
The Hurrikane didn’t score until GW7 against Man City at home.
Kane has a zero point week to his name, having played 90 minutes. During GW8, away at Swansea in a 2-2 draw, Kane scored an own-goal, and has now managed this feat two seasons running.
Kane has been substituted from 5/31 games this season.
Of Spurs’s 56 goals this season, Kane has scored 21, and assisted in 3.
Kane has 60 more points away from home this season than Sergio Aguero, whilst Aguero has 9 more home points than Kane. Vardy has more home points than Kane and Aguero with 94, but Kane has 14 more away points.
Kane’s best home days…
GW7 (Man City, home): 7pts
GW11 (Aston Villa, home): 8pts
GW 13 (West Ham, home): 13pts
GW18 (Norwich, home): 13pts
GW22 (Sunderland, home): 10pts
GW29 (Arsenal, home): 6pts
GW31 (Bournemouth, home): 16pts
Kane’s best away days…
GW10 (Bournemouth, away): 17 points
GW12 (Arsenal, away): 8pts
GW17 (Southampton, away): 6pts
GW19 (Watford, away): 7pts
GW24 (Norwich, away): 13pts
GW26 (Man City, away): 6pts
GW30 (Aston Villa, away): 13pts
Notes on Lukaku
Since GW22, Lukaku’s price has fallen from 9.3m to 8.9m.
8/18 of Lukaku’s goals came between GWs 11-17. In addition, Big Room has only scored 3 goals in the second half of the season (GW20 onwards).
Lukaku is joint with 2 other forwards on 25 bonus points: Ighalo and Vardy. Only Harry Kane, with 27, has more.
Lukaku has scored 2 goals in one game on 4 occasions this season: GWs 2,7, 13, 19
The Belgian forward has been substituted 7/30 times this season.
Big Rom’s best home days…
GW1 (Watford, home): 5pts
GW8 (Liverpool, home): 7pts
GW11 (Sunderland, home): 14pts
GW13 (Aston Villa, home): 12pts
GW15 (Crystal Palace, home): 8pts
GW17 (Leicester, home): 6pts
GW19 (Stoke, home): 13pts
GW20 (Spurs, home): 5pts
GW29 (West Ham, home): 7pts
Big Rom’s best away days…
GW2 (Southampton, away): 13pts
GW7 (West Brom, away): 16pts
GW12 (West Ham, away): 8pts
GW14 (Bournemouth, away): 6pts
GW16 (Norwich, away): 9pts
GW25 (Stoke, away): 9pts
GW28 (Aston Villa, away): 5pts
Notes on Ighalo
Ighalo has scored 13/15 goals between GWs 5-19. The only other occasions Ighalo has scored was GW1 at Everton, and GW23 in a 2-1 home victory over Newcastle.
In the second half of the season, now at 11 games in, Ighalo only has 1 goal, and has achieved only 2 points on 10 of the other 11 occasions.
Starting the season at 5.0m, Ighalo’s price rose to its maximum between GWs 21-24 when his highest value was 6.4m.
Ighalo is joint second on 25 bonus points with Lukaku and Vardy, but has only managed 3 bonus points from 13 games.
Ighalo’s favourite team to score FPL points again is Newcastle. Ighalo scored 13 points during GW6 at St James’s Park, and 12 points during GW23 at Vicarage Road.
Ighalo’s best home days…
GW5 (Swansea, home): 9pts
GW11 (West Ham, home): 13pts
GW13 (Man United, home): 5pts
GW15 (Norwich, home): 10pts
GW17 (Liverpool, home): 13pts
GW19 (Spurs, home): 5pts
GW23 (Newcastle, home): 12pts
Ighalo’s best away days…
GW1 (Everton, away): 6pts
GW6 (Newcastle, away): 13pts
GW8 (Bournemouth, away): 9pts
GW10 (Stoke, away): 7pts
GW14 (Aston Villa, away): 12pts
GW16 (Sunderland, away): 7pts
GW18 (Chelsea, away): 6pts
Notes on Deeney
The Englishman started the season at 5.5m, and has never risen above his original price despite having 5 more FPL points than Sergio Aguero, and being in the top 5 forward options for the season.
Deeney didn’t score his first goal of the season until GW10, away at Stoke in a 2-0 victory.
Troy Deeney is the ‘King’ of our wildcard options. Having never been above 5% ownership all season, Deeney is a regular addition to our weekly articles that assesses the differentials for each and every Gameweek.
Deeney has only scored in both home and away ties against one team this season: Stoke (GW10 and GW31).
Deeney has blanked from 14/31 games this season, meaning he’s good for points on average of every other game.
The forward, caught in the shadow of Ighalo for much of the season, has 8 assists to his name, compared to Ighalo’s 6.
Deeney has only been substituted on 2 occasions this season. He gets the minutes in, which is what FPL players love.
Deeney’s best home days…
GW5 (Swansea, home): 5pts
GW13 (Man United, home): 6pts
GW15 (Norwich, home): 11pts
GW17 (Liverpool, home): 5pts
GW19 (Spurs, home): 4pts
GW23 (Newcastle, home): 6pts
GW31 (Stoke, home): 8pts
Deeney’s best away days…
GW1 (Everton, away): 4pts
GW6 (Newcastle, away): 5pts
GW10 (Stoke, away): 6pts
GW12 (Leicester, away): 8pts
GW14 (Aston Villa, away): 11pts
GW18 (Chelsea, away): 8pts
GW26 (Crystal Palace, away): 13pts
Notes on The Kun
Between GWs 9-18, Aguero missed 7 games through injury
Aguero managed just 10 FPL points away from home in the first half of the season, without a single return.
The Argentine forward has scored 16 goals this season, but has only scored in 9/30 games this season. The figure is 9/23 if you factor in games missed through injury.
Aguero has completed 90 minutes in his last 8 matches (GWs 23-31, minus a GW27 blank due to the League Cup final), but only has done so on 3 other GWs (4, 6, 21).
The £13.6m forward has managed just 2 FPL points or less from a single Gameweek on 13 different occasions.
Aguero has only managed 2 assists so far in the 2015/16 season. First, in a 2-1 home defeat against West Ham during GW6. Second, Aguero assisted David Silva during GW22s 4-0 home victory against Crystal Palace
Aguero has managed 2 goals or more in a single game on four different occasions this season:
GW8: Newcastle (h), 5 goals
GW22: Crystal Palace (h), 2 goals
GW23: West Ham (a), 2 goals
GW29: Aston Villa (h), 2 goals
Aguero’s best home days…
GW2 (Chelsea, home): 6pts
GW8 (Newcastle, home): 25pts
GW13 (Liverpool, home): 6pts
GW22 (Crystal Palace, home): 16pts
GW25 (Leicester, home): 6pts
GW29 (Aston Villa, home): 11pts
Aguero’s only away day returns…
GW20 (Watford, away): 9pts
GW23 (West Ham, away): 13pts
GW24 (Sunderland, away): 5pts
Notes on Giroud
Giroud has only started 21 games this season. The Frenchmen’s other 9 appearances have been as a substitute.
Giroud is just 6 points away from beating his record from last season. In 2014/15 Giroud finished with 120 points, and is currently on 115 for the current campaign.
The last goals Olivier scored were during Arsenal’s GW21 3-3 away draw with Liverpool. On that night Giroud scored 2, earning all 3 bonus points.
Giroud has only managed 1 double digits week, and that was against Liverpool during GW21.
The French forward has scored 5 FPL points from 7 games this season.
Giroud has only managed 9 bonus points this season, all coming from 5 games.
Giroud’s best home days…
GW5 (Stoke, home): 5pts
GW10 (Everton, home): 6pts
GW17 (Man City, home): 8pts
GW19 (Bournemouth, home): 5pts
GW20 (Newcastle, home): 5pts
GW26 (Leicester, home): 5pts
Giroud’s best away days…
GW2 (Crystal Palace, away): 7pts
GW7 (Leicester, away): 5pts
GW9 (Watford, away): 5pts
GW11 (Swansea, away): 6pts
GW13 (West Brom, away): 7pts
GW16 (Aston Villa, away): 6pts
GW21 (Liverpool, away): 13pts
GW25 (Bournemouth, away): 5pts
Notes on Costa
Through injury and suspension, Costa has missed 6 BPL games this season.
Costa has managed 1 point a game 5 times this season. On each occasion the Brazilian turned Spanish forward was booked without scoring.
In addition to the 5 times Costa has managed just one point, he’s also managed 0 points from 7 games, and 2 points a game from a further 7 games.
In the first half of the season, Costa only managed 4 GWs with any FPL returns (3, 9, 13, 18).
From the second half of the campaign, Costa has currently managed 7 weeks’ worth of FPL returns (GWs 20, 22, 23, 25, 26, 27, 28).
With 6 assists this season so far, Costa has twice the amount of assists he managed in the entire of the 2014/15 season (3).
Costa is banned for the GW32 encounter away at Aston Villa for being sent off in the FA Cup quarter final defeat away at Everton.
From Costa’s 14 bonus points this season, the forward has managed the maximum 3 bonus points on 3 occasions (GWs 9, 18, 25).
Chelsea are not competing in DGW34, but play twice during DGW37 against Sunderland and Liverpool. Both games are away.
Costa has managed to score FPL returns from home and away fixtures against one team this season, Norwich. Costa scored 6pts in GW13, and 8pts in GW28.
Costa’s best home days…
GW9 (Aston Villa, home): 12pts
GW13 (Norwich, home): 6pts
GW18 (Watford, home): 12pts
GW22 (Everton, home): 9pts
GW25 (Man United, home): 9pts
GW26 (Newcastle, home): 9pts
Costa’s best away days…
GW3 (West Brom, away): 10pts
GW20 (Crystal Palace, away): 10pts
GW23 (Arsenal, away): 6pts
GW27 (Southampton, away): 4pts
GW28 (Norwich, away): 8pts
Notes on Pelle
The Italian forward has managed just 499 minutes of football in the season half of the season (GW20 onwards), scoring 38 points in that time. 28 of those points have been from the last two fixtures, GWs 30 & 31.
Pelle missed 6 games between GWs 14-23 through injury.
Between GWs 12-29, Pelle managed just 17 points.
Pelle also managed to finish the full 90 minutes on 17 occasions this this. 12/17 of these occasions occurred between GWs 1-13.
Pelle is 40 points shy of his 249 points tally from 2014/15. He’s also one more assist better off than last season, with 7, but 3 goals shy of his tally goal from last season (12).
Pelle has 12 bonus points this season, and they’ve all been the maximum 3 bonus (GWs 6, 8, 30, 31)
Southampton are not featuring in the DGW’s this season. For DGW34 Southampton travel Everton, and for DGW37 they travel to Spurs.
Pelle’s best home days…
GW4 (Norwich, home); 9pts
GW6 (Man United, home): 13pts
GW7 (Swansea, home): 8pts
GW11 (Bournemouth, home): 6pts
GW31 (Liverpool, home): 15pts
Pelle’s best away days…
GW1 (Newcastle, away): 5pts
GW8 (Chelsea, away): 14pts
GW30 (Stoke, away): 13pts
Notes on Defoe
Defoe has scored 5/12 goals in 2 GW’s this season. In GW21 Defoe scored twice against Aston Villa, whilst he scored a hat-trick IN GW22 away at Swansea.
Defoe has not featured in 4 games this season. Sunderland won none of those 4 games (GWs 7, 8, 15, 18).
Between GWs 9-16, Defoe recorded 5 FPL points’ returns of 1. None were due to yellow cards, but via substitution. Defoe picked up yellow cards in the remaining 2 games, where Defoe scored on both occasions (GWs 11 &13).
The English forward has spent most of the season as a designated ‘wildcard’ due to the popularity of other strikers, and the fact that Sunderland have only kept 3 clean sheets this season, it’s easier to play forwards against Defoe.
Sunderland feature in DGW27, taking on Chelsea and Everton, both at home.
Defoe’s best home days…
GW3 (Swansea, home): 8pts
GW20 (Aston Villa, home): 13pts
GW28 (Crystal Palace, home): 5pts
Defoe’s best away days…
GW1 (Leicester, away): 6pts
GW11 (Everton, away): 5pts
GW13 (Crystal Palace, away): 5pts
GW21 (Swansea, away): 17pts
GW25 (Liverpool, away): 6pts
GW29 (Southampton, away): 8pts
GW31 (Newcastle, away): 8pts
Verdict
What we found during our midfielders article was that the top performers have better returns on the road. At the rear of the pitch, goalkeepers earn more points at home. Forwards are proving slightly more prolific in their home stadiums, but can be proven deadly away from home. Here is a quick run down of what we've found.
Jamie Vardy: Home
Harry Kane: Away
Romelu Lukaku: Home
Odion Ighalo: Home
Troy Deeney: Away
Sergio Aguero: Home
Olivier Giroud: Away
Diego Costa: Home
Graziano Pelle: Home
Jermain Defoe: Away
Totals: 6 home, 4 away
Striking options have been pretty cut and dry between the first day and now. Jamie Vardy has been a mainstay. Kane took a while to get going, but has been an essential since the turn on November. Since Aguero's return from injury, he's in teams despite a low points return, but never knowing when the Argentine will strike big. Odion Ighalo has been the cheap option to carry, finding good mid-season form, but has now made way for wildcard alternatives such as Rondon, Defoe, and Afobe. Everton's Lukaku is also common place in teams, and will be an essential between GW34 and the end of the season, with the Belgian tipped for 3 Double Gameweek appearances.
The Double Gameweek fixtures have come at the right time for alternative forwards to make a mark. Lukaku, Rondon, Giroud, Welbeck, Martial, Rashford, Mitrovic, and potentially Daniel Sturridge, could make big gains in just a few short weeks when most will play their wildcards for GW33.
All aboard.
